OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-29
🇮🇹 Serie A · Thursday 29 October 2026, 19:45 UTC · finished
Fiorentina 0.80 2 - 2 0.80 Atalanta
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 42.6%32%+10.2%✗ miss
DCHome or away 76.0%77%-0.6%✗ miss
DNBAway (DNB) 53.3%44%+9.2%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 62.7%63%+0.2%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 62.6%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson28.0%25.2%46.8%
xgboost41.0%24.9%34.1%
logistic39.0%27.7%33.3%
Inputs the models saw
FiorentinaAtalanta
Elo (pre-match)16131697
Surface Elo16131697
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.800.80
Form trend0.70-0.20
Season points per game0.501.25
Season goals for / game1.131.75
Season goals against / game2.381.88
Rest days44
Head-to-head (last 10)5 W3 W · 2 D
Fiorentina: last 5
25 OctAInter1 - 2L
25 OctAInter1 - 2L
18 OctHComo1 - 3L
18 OctHComo1 - 3L
10 OctAGenoa1 - 2L
Atalanta: last 5
28 OctHVis Pesaro 18982 - 1W
25 OctHFrosinone4 - 4D
25 OctHFrosinone4 - 4D
24 OctHCampobasso FC1 - 2L
22 OctAAjax0 - 2L
Head to head
22 May 2026Fiorentina1 - 1Atalanta
30 Nov 2025Atalanta2 - 0Fiorentina
30 Mar 2025Fiorentina1 - 0Atalanta
15 Sep 2024Atalanta3 - 2Fiorentina
02 Jun 2024Atalanta2 - 3Fiorentina
17 Sep 2023Fiorentina3 - 2Atalanta
17 Apr 2023Fiorentina1 - 1Atalanta
02 Oct 2022Atalanta1 - 0Fiorentina
20 Feb 2022Fiorentina1 - 0Atalanta
11 Sep 2021Atalanta1 - 2Fiorentina
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.8035.7%29 Oct 19:45
Bet3651X2draw3.7027.0%29 Oct 19:45
Bet3651X2home2.3043.5%29 Oct 19:45
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.4469.4%29 Oct 19:45
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.7536.4%29 Oct 19:45
SportyBet1X2away2.9833.6%29 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.7426.7%29 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.4041.7%29 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5664.1%29 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.5040.0%29 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 14:02 UTC