| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 71.2% | 85% | -14.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 66.3% | 33.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 83.0% | 16.9% |
| logistic | 70.4% | 29.6% |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Federico Coria | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1683 | 1539 |
| Surface Elo | 1683 | 1539 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 0.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.67 |
| Rest days | 17 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Felix Auger Aliassime | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Ilia Simakin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Ilia Simakin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Federico Cina | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Nicolas Mejia | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Nicolas Mejia | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Eduardo Ribeiro | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Lucio Ratti | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Eduardo Ribeiro | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Feb 2025 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 2 - 0 | Federico Coria |
| 29 Jan 2024 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 2 - 0 | Federico Coria |
| 13 Nov 2023 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 2 - 0 | Federico Coria |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.75 | 21.1% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.16 | 86.2% | 27 Oct 06:15 |