| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.6% | 38% | +12.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 78.1% | 79% | -1.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 64.7% | 51% | +14.1% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.2% | 61% | +9.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 59.5% | 21.8% | 18.7% |
| xgboost | 33.8% | 28.6% | 37.6% |
| logistic | 50.7% | 19.8% | 29.5% |
| Torquay | Oxford City | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1456 | 1294 |
| Surface Elo | 1456 | 1294 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1266 | 910 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Slough Town | 5 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Tonbridge Angels | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Billericay Town | 0 - 3 | L |
| 29 Apr | H | Wrexham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 22 Apr | A | Altrincham | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Hebburn Town | 3 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Enfield Town | 6 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Morecambe | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Apr | A | Altrincham | 0 - 1 | L |
| 16 Apr | H | Bromley | 1 - 3 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.60 | 38.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.64 | 61.0% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |