| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 52.1% | 65% | -13.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| logistic | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| Samuele Pieri | Martin Krumich | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1611 | 1559 |
| Surface Elo | 1611 | 1559 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.14 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.29 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.86 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Martin Krumich | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Vitaliy Sachko | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Carlos Taberner | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Laurent Lokoli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Jonas Forejtek | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Samuele Pieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Matthew William Donald | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Pierluigi Basile | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Imanol Lopez Morillo | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Martin Krumich | 2 - 0 | Samuele Pieri |
| 06 Jul 2026 | Martin Krumich | 2 - 1 | Samuele Pieri |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.51 | 66.2% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.45 | 40.8% | 06 Oct 06:15 |