| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 60.4% | 70% | -9.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 33.6% | 66.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 49.9% | 50.0% |
| logistic | 40.4% | 59.6% |
| Mika Petkovic | Vitaliy Sachko | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1460 | 1641 |
| Surface Elo | 1460 | 1641 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 12 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Vitaliy Sachko | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | H | Francesco Forti | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | A | Raul Brancaccio | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Thiago Monteiro | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Francesco Forti | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Samuele Pieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Dimitar Kuzmanov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Mika Petkovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Sep | H | Thiago Monteiro | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Mika Petkovic | 0 - 2 | Vitaliy Sachko |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.38 | 72.5% | 28 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.90 | 34.5% | 28 Sep 06:15 |