| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 44.9% | 32% | +13.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 73.3% | 76% | -2.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 58.6% | 43% | +15.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.8% | 62% | +4.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 63.1% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 36.7% | 27.3% | 36.0% |
| xgboost | 27.5% | 32.8% | 39.8% |
| logistic | 25.8% | 28.8% | 45.5% |
| Lille | Galatasaray | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1769 | 1837 |
| Surface Elo | 1769 | 1837 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | H | Brest | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Brest | 1 - 1 | D |
| 13 Oct | A | Arsenal | 0 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Le Havre | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Le Havre | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Genclerbirligi | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Genclerbirligi | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Barcelona | 1 - 4 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Kasimpasa | 3 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Kasimpasa | 3 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.14 | 31.9% | 21 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.75 | 26.7% | 21 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.30 | 43.5% | 21 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.63 | 61.4% | 21 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.35 | 42.5% | 21 Oct 06:15 |