| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.7% | 58% | -6.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 45.4% | 38.6% |
| xgboost | 68.5% | 30.0% |
| logistic | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | New York Islanders | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1386 | 1448 |
| Surface Elo | 1386 | 1448 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.50 | 2.86 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.50 | 2.43 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 4 W · 0 D |
| 15 Oct | H | Buffalo Sabres | 4 - 5 | L |
| 14 Oct | A | Utah Utah Hockey Club | 4 - 5 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Colorado Avalanche | 6 - 3 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Vegas Golden Knights | 3 - 4 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Nashville Predators | 5 - 4 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | Ottawa Senators | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Vancouver Canucks | 3 - 2 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Tampa Bay Lightning | 3 - 5 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Chicago Blackhawks | 4 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | New York Rangers | 2 - 5 | L |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 2 - 1 | New York Islanders |
| 09 Apr 2026 | New York Islanders | 5 - 3 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 17 Mar 2026 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 1 - 3 | New York Islanders |
| 04 Jan 2026 | New York Islanders | 4 - 3 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 03 Jan 2025 | New York Islanders | 1 - 2 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 31 Dec 2024 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 3 - 1 | New York Islanders |
| 22 Dec 2024 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 3 - 6 | New York Islanders |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.73 | 57.8% | 17 Oct 18:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 2.23 | 44.8% | 17 Oct 18:20 |