| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.5% | 71% | -13.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 81.3% | 92% | -10.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 74.2% | 88% | -14.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% | 71% | -15.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 59.4% | 20.6% | 19.9% |
| xgboost | 65.0% | 19.7% | 15.3% |
| logistic | 59.1% | 24.2% | 16.7% |
| Stockport | Barnsley | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1557 | 1452 |
| Surface Elo | 1557 | 1452 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | 0.70 |
| Season points per game | 1.63 | 1.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.13 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 1.71 |
| Rest days | 14 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 2 D |
| 09 Oct | A | Leeds | 1 - 3 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Shrewsbury | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Peterborough United | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Peterboro | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Sheffield Weds | 0 - 0 | D |
| 06 Oct | A | Fleetwood Town | 1 - 4 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | Leeds | 3 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Leicester | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Leicester | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Plymouth | 0 - 3 | L |
| 02 May 2026 | Barnsley | 1 - 3 | Stockport |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Stockport | 1 - 1 | Barnsley |
| 08 Feb 2025 | Stockport | 2 - 1 | Barnsley |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Barnsley | 1 - 1 | Stockport |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 7.50 | 13.3% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 5.25 | 19.1% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.30 | 76.9% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.40 | 71.4% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.88 | 34.7% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.60 | 15.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.30 | 18.9% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.41 | 70.9% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.40 | 71.4% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.90 | 34.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |