OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-11

🎾 tennis_atp_shanghai_masters · Sunday 11 October 2026, 08:00 UTC · scheduled

Alexander Bublik 1.80 08:00 1.20 Brandon Nakashima

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	52.6%	57%	-4.5%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	48.6%	51.4%
logistic	47.9%	52.1%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Alexander Bublik	Brandon Nakashima
Elo (pre-match)	1914	1966
Surface Elo	1914	1966
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	1.20
Form trend	0.30	-0.30
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	1	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	0 W	0 W · 0 D

Alexander Bublik: last 5

11 Oct	H	Brandon Nakashima	2 - 1	W
09 Oct	H	Tomas Machac	2 - 0	W
09 Oct	H	Tomas Machac	2 - 0	W
01 Oct	H	Jakub Mensik	0 - 2	L
01 Oct	H	Jakub Mensik	0 - 2	L

Brandon Nakashima: last 5

11 Oct	A	Alexander Bublik	1 - 2	L
09 Oct	A	Matteo Berrettini	2 - 0	W
09 Oct	H	Matteo Berrettini	2 - 0	W
01 Oct	H	Ugo Humbert	0 - 2	L
01 Oct	H	Ugo Humbert	0 - 2	L

Head to head

11 Oct 2026

Alexander Bublik

2 - 1

Brandon Nakashima

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Alexander Bublik	2.09	47.9%	11 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Brandon Nakashima	1.77	56.5%	11 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Alexander Bublik	2.00	50.0%	11 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Brandon Nakashima	1.80	55.6%	11 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Alexander Bublik	1.91	52.4%	11 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Brandon Nakashima	1.83	54.6%	11 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Alexander Bublik	2.06	48.5%	11 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Brandon Nakashima	1.92	52.1%	11 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Alexander Bublik	2.08	48.1%	11 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Brandon Nakashima	1.94	51.5%	11 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Alexander Bublik	2.00	50.0%	11 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Brandon Nakashima	1.83	54.6%	11 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Alexander Bublik	2.12	47.2%	11 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Brandon Nakashima	1.73	57.8%	11 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Alexander Bublik	2.05	48.8%	11 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Brandon Nakashima	1.78	56.2%	11 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Alexander Bublik	2.15	46.5%	11 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Brandon Nakashima	1.74	57.5%	11 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Alexander Bublik	2.05	48.8%	11 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Brandon Nakashima	1.77	56.5%	11 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Alexander Bublik	2.06	48.5%	11 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Brandon Nakashima	1.92	52.1%	11 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Alexander Bublik	2.08	48.1%	11 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Brandon Nakashima	1.94	51.5%	11 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Alexander Bublik	2.12	47.2%	11 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Brandon Nakashima	1.73	57.8%	11 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Alexander Bublik	2.03	49.3%	11 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Brandon Nakashima	1.88	53.2%	11 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Alexander Bublik	1.96	51.0%	11 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Brandon Nakashima	1.70	58.8%	11 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.75	57.1%	11 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	2.15	46.5%	11 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Alexander Bublik	2.00	50.0%	11 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Brandon Nakashima	1.72	58.1%	11 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Alexander Bublik	2.05	48.8%	11 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Brandon Nakashima	1.68	59.5%	11 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Alexander Bublik	2.05	48.8%	11 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Brandon Nakashima	1.77	56.5%	11 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Alexander Bublik	2.05	48.8%	11 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Brandon Nakashima	1.77	56.5%	11 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Alexander Bublik	2.00	50.0%	11 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Brandon Nakashima	1.80	55.6%	11 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Alexander Bublik	2.15	46.5%	11 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Brandon Nakashima	1.76	56.8%	11 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Alexander Bublik	2.10	47.6%	11 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Brandon Nakashima	1.72	58.1%	11 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 17:06 UTC