| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.8% | 61% | +0.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| logistic | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| Matteo Berrettini | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1876 | 1777 |
| Surface Elo | 1876 | 1777 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 2 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | A | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Sep | A | Mariano Navone | 1 - 3 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Stan Wawrinka | 3 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Matteo Berrettini | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Rafael Jodar | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Rafael Jodar | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Taro Daniel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Coleman Wong | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct 2026 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 2 - 0 | Matteo Berrettini |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.35 | 42.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.63 | 61.4% | 02 Oct 06:15 |