| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 49.5% | 47% | +2.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 73.8% | 80% | -6.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 64.2% | 63% | +1.0% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.0% | 59% | -8.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 30.9% | 24.1% | 45.1% |
| xgboost | 29.4% | 34.8% | 35.8% |
| logistic | 27.8% | 28.5% | 43.7% |
| Cheltenham | Chesterfield | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1443 | 1548 |
| Surface Elo | 1443 | 1548 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| Season points per game | 1.71 | 1.57 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.43 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.57 | 1.14 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 2 W · 2 D |
| 22 Sep | H | Exeter | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Colchester | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Colchester | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Crawley Town | 3 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Grimsby | 2 - 2 | D |
| 22 Sep | H | Port Vale | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | York | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | York | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Oldham | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Barnet | 3 - 3 | D |
| 03 Apr 2026 | Chesterfield | 1 - 0 | Cheltenham |
| 09 Aug 2025 | Cheltenham | 0 - 2 | Chesterfield |
| 01 Feb 2025 | Cheltenham | 1 - 0 | Chesterfield |
| 21 Sep 2024 | Chesterfield | 1 - 1 | Cheltenham |
| 17 Mar 2018 | Cheltenham | 1 - 1 | Chesterfield |
| 30 Sep 2017 | Chesterfield | 0 - 2 | Cheltenham |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.05 | 48.8% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.10 | 32.3% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.15 | 46.5% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.10 | 32.3% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 26 Sep 06:15 |