| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.7% | 49% | +1.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.0% | 80% | -5.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 65.1% | 66% | -0.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.7% | 48% | +2.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.6% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.5% | 26.1% | 30.5% |
| xgboost | 44.1% | 28.5% | 27.4% |
| logistic | 46.4% | 28.3% | 25.3% |
| Hornchurch | Eastleigh | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1473 | 1391 |
| Surface Elo | 1473 | 1391 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.08 | 1.17 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.58 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | H | Fulham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Harrogate | 0 - 3 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Harrogate | 0 - 3 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Aldershot | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Aldershot | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Woking | 1 - 3 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Woking | 1 - 3 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Southend | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Sep | H | Southend | 1 - 1 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Harrogate | 1 - 4 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.88 | 34.7% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.08 | 48.1% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.25 | 30.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |