| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 87.7% | 92% | -4.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 83.0% | 17.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 91.2% | 8.8% |
| logistic | 81.5% | 18.5% |
| Thiago Seyboth Wild | Carlos Maria Zarate | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1773 | 1416 |
| Surface Elo | 1773 | 1416 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.83 | 0.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.33 | 1.67 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | H | Mateus Alves | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Hugo Dellien | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Francisco Comesana | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Nicolas Kicker | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Carlos Maria Zarate | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Carlos Maria Zarate | 0 - 2 | Thiago Seyboth Wild |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.50 | 15.4% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.09 | 91.7% | 15 Oct 06:15 |