OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-09-19
🇮🇹 Serie A · Saturday 19 September 2026, 16:00 UTC · finished
Roma 3.00 2 - 2 2.60 Inter
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 41.5%38%+3.2%✗ miss
DCHome or away 74.9%75%+0.0%✗ miss
DNBAway (DNB) 55.3%53%+2.6%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 73.6%61%+12.2%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 59.1%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson33.5%25.1%41.5%
logisticfailed: ValueError
xgboostfailed: ValueError
Inputs the models saw
RomaInter
Elo (pre-match)18371920
Surface Elo18371920
Form, last 5 (PPG)3.002.60
Form trend0.00-0.40
Season points per game3.003.00
Season goals for / game3.003.25
Season goals against / game0.251.50
Rest days44
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W8 W · 0 D
Roma: last 5
14 SepATorino2 - 0W
05 SepHAtalanta2 - 1W
31 AugALecce4 - 0W
24 AugHFiorentina4 - 0W
24 MayAVerona2 - 0W
Inter: last 5
14 SepHUdinese5 - 3W
05 SepHNapoli3 - 2W
30 AugACagliari1 - 0W
22 AugHMonza4 - 1W
23 MayABologna3 - 3D
Head to head
05 Apr 2026Inter5 - 2Roma
18 Oct 2025Roma0 - 1Inter
27 Apr 2025Inter0 - 1Roma
20 Oct 2024Roma0 - 1Inter
10 Feb 2024Roma2 - 4Inter
29 Oct 2023Inter1 - 0Roma
06 May 2023Roma0 - 2Inter
01 Oct 2022Inter1 - 2Roma
23 Apr 2022Inter3 - 1Roma
04 Dec 2021Roma0 - 3Inter
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.5539.2%19 Sep 17:00
Bet3651X2draw3.4029.4%19 Sep 17:00
Bet3651X2home2.7037.0%19 Sep 17:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.6261.7%19 Sep 17:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.3043.5%19 Sep 17:00
SportyBet1X2away2.7037.0%19 Sep 06:16
SportyBet1X2draw3.5728.0%19 Sep 06:16
SportyBet1X2home2.7037.0%19 Sep 06:16
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6660.2%19 Sep 06:16
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.3043.5%19 Sep 06:16
Generated 2026-10-30 19:27 UTC