| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 55.0% | 42% | +13.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| logistic | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Learner Tien | Hubert Hurkacz | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1955 | 1946 |
| Surface Elo | 1955 | 1946 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 24 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | A | Hubert Hurkacz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Karen Khachanov | 2 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Jakub Mensik | 3 - 2 | W |
| 03 Sep | A | Gael Monfils | 3 - 0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | Nuno Borges | 3 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Learner Tien | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Denis Shapovalov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Denis Shapovalov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct 2026 | Hubert Hurkacz | 2 - 1 | Learner Tien |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.50 | 40.0% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.57 | 63.7% | 30 Sep 06:15 |