OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-12

NFL · Monday 12 October 2026, 00:20 UTC · finished

Atlanta Falcons – 23 - 30 – Baltimore Ravens

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	52.8%	39%	+13.5%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	47.2%	52.8%

Inputs the models saw

	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens
playoff	0.00
elo diff	-0.12
form diff	0.12
rest diff	-0.19
home field	1.00
point diff	-0.34
opponent strength diff	-0.00
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-10-11T00:20:00+00:00

Atlanta Falcons: last 5

06 Oct	A	New Orleans Saints	45 - 24	W
25 Sep	A	Green Bay Packers	35 - 14	W
20 Sep	H	Carolina Panthers	3 - 34	L
13 Sep	A	Pittsburgh Steelers	13 - 20	L
04 Jan	H	New Orleans Saints	19 - 17	W

Baltimore Ravens: last 5

04 Oct	H	Tennessee Titans	24 - 18	W
27 Sep	A	Dallas Cowboys	34 - 31	W
20 Sep	H	New Orleans Saints	17 - 24	L
13 Sep	A	Indianapolis Colts	41 - 23	W
05 Jan	A	Pittsburgh Steelers	24 - 26	L

Head to head

24 Dec 2022	Baltimore Ravens	17 - 9	Atlanta Falcons
02 Dec 2018	Atlanta Falcons	16 - 26	Baltimore Ravens
19 Oct 2014	Baltimore Ravens	29 - 7	Atlanta Falcons
12 Nov 2010	Atlanta Falcons	26 - 21	Baltimore Ravens
19 Nov 2006	Baltimore Ravens	24 - 10	Atlanta Falcons
03 Nov 2002	Atlanta Falcons	20 - 17	Baltimore Ravens

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	1.58	63.3%	11 Oct 18:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	2.53	39.5%	11 Oct 18:20

Generated 2026-10-30 17:03 UTC