| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 60.0% | 61% | -1.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 38.3% | 61.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 36.7% | 63.2% |
| logistic | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| Philip Henning | Maks Kasnikowski | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1532 | 1601 |
| Surface Elo | 1532 | 1601 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 29 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Ivan Marrero Curbelo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Borna Gojo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Maks Kasnikowski | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Thijs Boogaard | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Tristan Schoolkate | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Philip Henning | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Jay Friend | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Francesco Maestrelli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Christian Langmo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Ivan Marrero Curbelo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Maks Kasnikowski | 0 - 2 | Philip Henning |
| 03 Aug 2026 | Maks Kasnikowski | 2 - 0 | Philip Henning |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.63 | 61.4% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |