| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.0% | 54% | -4.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 76.9% | 78% | -1.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 66.5% | 70% | -3.9% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.2% | 71% | +0.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 68.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 58.4% | 22.7% | 18.9% |
| xgboost | 41.2% | 30.4% | 28.4% |
| logistic | 45.3% | 27.4% | 27.2% |
| Atalanta | Frosinone | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1701 | 1675 |
| Surface Elo | 1701 | 1675 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | H | Campobasso FC | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | A | Ajax | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Ac Milan | 2 - 3 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Ac Milan | 2 - 3 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | AS Gubbio | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Sassuolo | 4 - 2 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Sassuolo | 4 - 2 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Napoli | 0 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Napoli | 0 - 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Como | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Jan 2024 | Atalanta | 5 - 0 | Frosinone |
| 26 Aug 2023 | Frosinone | 2 - 1 | Atalanta |
| 20 Jan 2019 | Frosinone | 0 - 5 | Atalanta |
| 20 Aug 2018 | Atalanta | 4 - 0 | Frosinone |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.99 | 25.1% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.25 | 23.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.84 | 54.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.41 | 70.9% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.90 | 34.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |