| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.3% | 49% | +13.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 85.3% | 76% | +9.1% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 74.2% | 70% | +4.0% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.2% | 49% | -0.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 48.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 44.0% | 26.9% | 29.1% |
| xgboost | 54.8% | 26.0% | 19.1% |
| logistic | 35.1% | 25.1% | 39.7% |
| Novara | Carpi | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1423 | 1349 |
| Surface Elo | 1423 | 1349 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3047 | 2689 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 18 May | H | Virtus Entella | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 May | A | Perugia | 1 - 1 | D |
| 05 May | H | Pescara | 1 - 1 | D |
| 01 May | A | Cremonese | 1 - 1 | D |
| 28 Apr | A | Empoli | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 May | H | Venezia | 2 - 3 | L |
| 05 May | A | Livorno | 0 - 1 | L |
| 01 May | H | Cremonese | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Apr | A | Salernitana | 5 - 2 | W |
| 22 Apr | H | Pescara | 0 - 0 | D |
| 20 Jan 2018 | Novara | 1 - 0 | Carpi |
| 26 Aug 2017 | Carpi | 1 - 0 | Novara |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.90 | 25.6% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.10 | 32.3% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.98 | 50.5% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.71 | 58.5% | 20 Sep 06:15 |