| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.6% | 63% | -1.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 56.8% | 43.2% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 62.6% | 37.3% |
| logistic | 67.4% | 32.6% |
| Hubert Hurkacz | Zizou Bergs | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2018 | 1879 |
| Surface Elo | 2018 | 1879 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.31 | 1.88 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.54 | 1.38 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.77 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 13 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | H | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Yi Zhou | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Yi Zhou | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Novak Djokovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Jan Lennard Struff | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | A | Rodrigo Alujas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | A | Damir Dzumhur | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | A | Damir Dzumhur | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Toby Samuel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Jan 2026 | Hubert Hurkacz | 3 - 1 | Zizou Bergs |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 26 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.59 | 62.9% | 26 Oct 06:15 |