| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 49.2% | 55% | -5.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 76.0% | 80% | -4.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 63.8% | 71% | -7.2% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% | 71% | -8.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 60.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 24.1% | 24.0% | 52.0% |
| xgboost | 31.2% | 27.0% | 41.8% |
| logistic | 30.2% | 27.4% | 42.4% |
| Hamburg | Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1579 | 1703 |
| Surface Elo | 1579 | 1703 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 2 W · 1 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Hoffenheim | 3 - 2 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Hoffenheim | 3 - 2 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Copenhagen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | FC Koln | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | RB Leipzig | 0 - 5 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | FC Koln | 1 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Slovan Bratislava | 3 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Hoffenheim | 3 - 2 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Paderborn | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Paderborn | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Apr 2026 | Stuttgart | 4 - 0 | Hamburg |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Hamburg | 2 - 1 | Stuttgart |
| 28 May 2020 | Stuttgart | 3 - 2 | Hamburg |
| 26 Oct 2019 | Hamburg | 6 - 2 | Stuttgart |
| 31 Mar 2018 | Stuttgart | 1 - 1 | Hamburg |
| 04 Nov 2017 | Hamburg | 3 - 1 | Stuttgart |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.67 | 59.9% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.33 | 23.1% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 4.33 | 23.1% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.40 | 71.4% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.00 | 33.3% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.84 | 54.4% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.34 | 23.0% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.04 | 24.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.41 | 70.9% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.00 | 33.3% | 17 Oct 06:15 |