| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 54.0% | 50% | +4.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| logistic | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| Flavio Cobolli | Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1906 | 1933 |
| Surface Elo | 1906 | 1933 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | H | Lorenzo Musetti | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Brandon Nakashima | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Brandon Nakashima | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Stan Wawrinka | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Stan Wawrinka | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Flavio Cobolli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Luca Van Assche | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Luca Van Assche | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Moise Kouame | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Moise Kouame | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct 2026 | Flavio Cobolli | 1 - 2 | Lorenzo Musetti |
| 24 Aug 2025 | Flavio Cobolli | 0 - 2 | Lorenzo Musetti |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.00 | 50.0% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.84 | 54.4% | 24 Oct 06:15 |