| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.4% | 57% | -4.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.4% | 38.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 41.7% | 58.3% |
| logistic | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| Max Alcala Gurri | Elmer Moller | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1689 | 1684 |
| Surface Elo | 1689 | 1684 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 1.88 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.30 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | H | Andres Andrade | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Elmer Moller | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Andy Andrade | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Tristan Boyer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Svyatoslav Gulin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Henrique Rocha | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Max Alcala Gurri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Tristan Boyer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Elmer Moller | 2 - 1 | Max Alcala Gurri |
| 17 Nov 2025 | Elmer Moller | 2 - 0 | Max Alcala Gurri |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.88 | 53.2% | 21 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.86 | 53.8% | 21 Oct 06:15 |