| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 53.6% | 56% | -2.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| logistic | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Felipe Meligeni Alves | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1567 | 1647 |
| Surface Elo | 1567 | 1647 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 10 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Nick Hardt | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Juan Pablo Varillas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Gustavo Heide | 0 - 1 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Carlos Maria Zarate | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | A | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 0 - 1 | L |
| 23 Sep | A | Murkel Dellien | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Tomas Farjat | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 2 - 0 | Juan Pablo Varillas |
| 26 Jan 2026 | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 2 | Juan Pablo Varillas |
| 06 Nov 2023 | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 1 - 2 | Juan Pablo Varillas |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.64 | 61.0% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |