OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-09-27
⚽ La Liga 2 · Sunday 27 September 2026, 16:30 UTC · finished
Burgos 1.60 1 - 0 1.00 Eldense
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 49.7%52%-1.9%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 77.8%82%-3.9%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 68.1%72%-3.8%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 49.5%60%-10.2%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS no 52.3%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson53.8%27.7%18.5%
xgboost42.7%36.5%20.9%
logistic49.5%28.3%22.2%
Inputs the models saw
BurgosEldense
Elo (pre-match)15811397
Surface Elo15811397
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.601.00
Form trend-0.80-0.10
Season points per game1.830.83
Season goals for / game1.670.67
Season goals against / game1.171.33
Rest days78
Head-to-head (last 10)1 W2 W · 1 D
Burgos: last 5
27 SepACultural Leonesa0 - 0D
20 SepALas Palmas2 - 1W
20 SepALas Palmas2 - 1W
11 SepHCeuta3 - 1W
06 SepAOviedo0 - 0D
Eldense: last 5
26 SepHTorrent CF3 - 1W
19 SepHEibar1 - 2L
19 SepHEibar1 - 2L
13 SepASp Gijon1 - 0W
05 SepHMallorca0 - 0D
Head to head
29 Mar 2025Eldense0 - 0Burgos
08 Dec 2024Burgos1 - 0Eldense
10 May 2024Burgos1 - 2Eldense
05 Nov 2023Eldense2 - 0Burgos
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away3.1032.3%27 Sep 17:30
Bet3651X2draw3.1032.3%27 Sep 17:30
Bet3651X2home2.3243.1%27 Sep 17:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over2.2544.4%27 Sep 17:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.6261.7%27 Sep 17:30
SportyBet1X2away3.9025.6%27 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.3030.3%27 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.0050.0%27 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over2.1546.5%27 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.6759.9%27 Sep 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:27 UTC