| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.2% | 82% | -18.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 86.2% | 98% | -11.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 80.7% | 96% | -15.2% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.1% | 72% | -14.9% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 52.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 70.3% | 17.1% | 12.6% |
| xgboost | 82.9% | 9.6% | 7.5% |
| logistic | 67.6% | 20.9% | 11.5% |
| Castellon | Ceuta | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1622 | 1450 |
| Surface Elo | 1622 | 1450 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.70 |
| Season points per game | 2.71 | 0.57 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 0.86 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.29 | 2.43 |
| Rest days | 5 | 8 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 2 D |
| 03 Oct | H | CF Lorca Deportiva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Leganes | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Leganes | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Orihuela CF | 4 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Valencia | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Dos Hermanas CF 1971 | 0 - 5 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Sociedad B | 3 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Sociedad | 3 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Valladolid | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Valladolid | 1 - 1 | D |
| 09 May 2026 | Ceuta | 1 - 1 | Castellon |
| 14 Sep 2025 | Castellon | 3 - 3 | Ceuta |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 10.00 | 10.0% | 04 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 5.75 | 17.4% | 04 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.24 | 80.7% | 04 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.36 | 73.5% | 04 Oct 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.10 | 32.3% | 04 Oct 17:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 10.50 | 9.5% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 6.70 | 14.9% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.22 | 82.0% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.38 | 72.5% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.95 | 33.9% | 04 Oct 06:15 |