| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.6% | 70% | -16.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 58.2% | 41.8% |
| logistic | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| Michael Geerts | Leo Raquillet | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1433 | 1452 |
| Surface Elo | 1433 | 1452 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 12 | 12 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | H | Pavel Lagutin | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Pavel Lagutin | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Edas Butvilas | 0 - 1 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Joao Domingues | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Edas Butvilas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Mathys Erhard | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Gabi Adrian Boitan | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Yanis Ghazouani Durand | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Jul | H | Lorenzo Giustino | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Jun | H | Marko Topo | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.70 | 37.0% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.43 | 69.9% | 25 Oct 06:15 |