| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.5% | 64% | -6.2% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| logistic | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| Jaime Faria | Felix Balshaw | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1787 | 1653 |
| Surface Elo | 1787 | 1653 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 12 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | A | Felix Balshaw | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | A | Arthur Gea | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | A | Arthur Gea | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | H | Jaume Munar | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Dillon Beckles | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Jaime Faria | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Oct | H | Mika Brunold | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | H | Matisse Bobichon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Gauthier Onclin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Mika Brunold | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Felix Balshaw | 2 - 1 | Jaime Faria |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 19 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.59 | 62.9% | 19 Oct 06:15 |