| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.5% | 58% | -3.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| logistic | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| Matthew William Donald | Filippo Romano | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1661 | 1512 |
| Surface Elo | 1661 | 1512 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.50 | 1.71 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 0.86 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Oct | A | Henry Searle | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Javier Barranco Cosano | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Filippo Romano | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Maxim Zhukov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Yanaki Milev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Filip Cristian Jianu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Michele Ribecai | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Sandro Kopp | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Matthew William Donald | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Filippo Romano | 2 - 0 | Matthew William Donald |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.05 | 48.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.73 | 57.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |