| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 49.8% | 47% | +3.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.6% | 78% | +1.3% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 68.8% | 66% | +2.7% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 48% | +7.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 45.4% | 30.2% | 24.4% |
| xgboost | 45.4% | 33.9% | 20.7% |
| logistic | 53.1% | 27.0% | 19.9% |
| Avellino | Padova | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1465 | 1389 |
| Surface Elo | 1465 | 1389 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.57 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.71 | 0.86 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.14 | 1.43 |
| Rest days | 5 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 18 Oct | A | Cesena | 1 - 1 | D |
| 18 Oct | A | Cesena | 1 - 1 | D |
| 09 Oct | H | Sampdoria | 4 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Sampdoria Genoa | 4 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Latina Calcio | 3 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Cittadella | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Virtus Entella | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | AC Renate | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Virtus Entella | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Carrarese | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Mar 2026 | Avellino | 1 - 0 | Padova |
| 30 Sep 2025 | Padova | 2 - 2 | Avellino |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.60 | 27.8% | 24 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.20 | 31.2% | 24 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 24 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 24 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.70 | 58.8% | 24 Oct 14:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.40 | 29.4% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.20 | 31.2% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.71 | 58.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |