| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 63.0% | 50% | +12.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 87.6% | 81% | +6.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 73.5% | 66% | +8.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 73% | -16.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 50.2% | 26.7% | 23.1% |
| xgboost | 31.0% | 26.3% | 42.7% |
| logistic | 12.8% | 14.5% | 72.7% |
| Graafschap | NAC Breda | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1409 | 1436 |
| Surface Elo | 1409 | 1436 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2685 | 126 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 15 May | H | Ajax | 1 - 4 | L |
| 12 May | A | Vitesse | 1 - 6 | L |
| 23 Apr | H | FC Emmen | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Apr | A | VVV Venlo | 1 - 4 | L |
| 14 Apr | A | PSV Eindhoven | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 May | A | AZ Alkmaar | 3 - 3 | D |
| 10 May | H | Heerenveen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 May | A | Utrecht | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Apr | H | Ajax | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Apr | A | For Sittard | 1 - 1 | D |
| 01 Feb 2019 | Graafschap | 3 - 0 | NAC Breda |
| 18 Aug 2018 | NAC Breda | 3 - 0 | Graafschap |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.00 | 50.0% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.10 | 24.4% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.20 | 31.2% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.40 | 71.4% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.90 | 34.5% | 20 Sep 06:15 |