| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.9% | 62% | -1.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 71.1% | 28.8% |
| logistic | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Braden Shick | Ozan Baris | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1550 | 1511 |
| Surface Elo | 1550 | 1511 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Mees Rottgering | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Ozan Baris | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Patrick Maloney | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Patrick Maloney | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Sep | H | Wolf, Jeffrey John | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Braden Shick | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | Igor Marcondes | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Alex Rybakov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Igor Marcondes | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | A | Edas Butvilas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Braden Shick | 2 - 1 | Ozan Baris |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.20 | 45.5% | 28 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.61 | 62.1% | 28 Sep 06:15 |