| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.5% | 61% | -7.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 39.7% | 60.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 54.9% | 45.0% |
| logistic | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| Massimo Giunta | Francesco Forti | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1521 | 1538 |
| Surface Elo | 1521 | 1538 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.62 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.31 | 1.17 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| Rest days | 6 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Nov | H | Adrian Andreev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Nov | H | Belozertsev, Nikita | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Henry Searle | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Maxim Zhukov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Gianluca Cadenasso | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Nov | A | Francesco Maestrelli | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Oriol Roca Batalla | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | A | Federico Bondioli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Jonas Forejtek | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Oriol Roca Batalla | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.10 | 47.6% | 09 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.68 | 59.5% | 09 Nov 06:15 |