OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-11
⚽ Italy Serie A · Sunday 11 October 2026, 16:00 UTC · finished
Sassuolo 1.40 1 - 1 2.20 Ac Milan
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 45.5%54%-8.3%✗ miss
DCHome or away 74.6%77%-2.6%✗ miss
DNBAway (DNB) 57.7%72%-14.2%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 58.9%57%+1.4%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 57.2%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson28.8%25.3%45.9%
xgboost36.5%32.5%31.0%
logistic35.2%26.4%38.4%
Inputs the models saw
SassuoloAc Milan
Elo (pre-match)16331768
Surface Elo16331768
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.402.20
Form trend0.000.20
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days2220
Head-to-head (last 10)4 W3 W · 3 D
Sassuolo: last 5
18 SepAMonza1 - 2L
13 SepHJuventus3 - 2W
06 SepABologna2 - 2D
29 AugHTorino2 - 1W
23 AugAAtalanta1 - 2L
Ac Milan: last 5
20 SepHLecce3 - 0W
20 SepAVilla Dalme Valle Brembana2 - 1W
12 SepALazio2 - 2D
06 SepAJuventus1 - 1D
28 AugHVenezia2 - 0W
Head to head
03 May 2026Sassuolo2 - 0Ac Milan
14 Dec 2025Ac Milan2 - 2Sassuolo
14 Apr 2024Sassuolo3 - 3Ac Milan
30 Dec 2023Ac Milan1 - 0Sassuolo
29 Jan 2023Ac Milan2 - 5Sassuolo
30 Aug 2022Sassuolo0 - 0Ac Milan
22 May 2022Sassuolo0 - 3Ac Milan
28 Nov 2021Ac Milan1 - 3Sassuolo
21 Apr 2021Ac Milan1 - 2Sassuolo
20 Dec 2020Sassuolo1 - 2Ac Milan
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away1.8653.8%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.8526.0%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home4.2723.4%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7457.5%09 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.1047.6%09 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:17 UTC