| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 54.6% | 32% | +22.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 79.1% | 57% | +22.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 70.9% | 42% | +29.0% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% | 74% | -19.9% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.5% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 13.1% | 21.0% | 65.9% |
| xgboost | 27.9% | 26.9% | 45.1% |
| logistic | 21.3% | 27.3% | 51.4% |
| Hornchurch | Fulham | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1473 | 1664 |
| Surface Elo | 1473 | 1664 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 16 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | A | Harrogate | 0 - 3 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Harrogate | 0 - 3 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Aldershot | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Aldershot | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Altrincham | 0 - 3 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Leicester | 1 - 6 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Manchester United | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Man Utd | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Liverpool | 0 - 0 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Crystal Palace | 2 - 3 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.10 | 32.3% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.10 | 24.4% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.99 | 50.2% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.35 | 74.1% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.15 | 31.8% | 06 Oct 06:15 |