| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.6% | 65% | -6.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| logistic | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| Jasmine Paolini | Daria Snigur | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1739 | 1618 |
| Surface Elo | 1739 | 1618 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 33 | 33 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | A | Daria Snigur | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Sorana Cirstea | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Lucrezia Stefanini | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Veronika Erjavec | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Jun | H | Marta Kostyuk | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Mirra Andreeva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Taylah Preston | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Jasmine Paolini | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Katarzyna Kawa | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Diana Shnaider | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Daria Snigur | 2 - 1 | Jasmine Paolini |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.55 | 39.2% | 01 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.55 | 64.5% | 01 Oct 06:15 |