OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-09-30
🎾 ATP Challenger Curitiba, Brazil Men Singles · Wednesday 30 September 2026, 21:30 UTC · finished
Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva 2.40 1 - 2 0.60 Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 53.7%41%+12.9%✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeAway
markov43.5%56.5%
poisson37.0%35.3%
xgboost57.6%42.4%
logistic55.0%45.0%
Inputs the models saw
Joao Lucas Reis Da SilvaMatheus Pucinelli De Almeida
Elo (pre-match)16131597
Surface Elo16131597
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.400.60
Form trend0.30-0.60
Season points per game3.001.50
Season goals for / game2.001.50
Season goals against / game0.001.50
Rest days11
Head-to-head (last 10)0 W2 W · 0 D
Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva: last 5
29 SepHMurkel Dellien2 - 0W
28 SepHMatheus Pucinelli De Almeida1 - 2L
28 SepHMurkel Dellien2 - 0W
07 SepHMika Brunold0 - 2L
07 SepAAlex Barrena2 - 0W
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida: last 5
29 SepHPaulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos2 - 1W
28 SepHTomas Barrios Vera1 - 2L
28 SepAJoao Lucas Reis Da Silva2 - 1W
28 SepHPaulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos2 - 1W
22 SepHHugo Dellien1 - 2L
Head to head
28 Sep 2026Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva1 - 2Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
22 Sep 2025Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva1 - 2Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
01 May 2023Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva1 - 2Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away1.5265.8%30 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.4540.8%30 Sep 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:08 UTC