| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.9% | 72% | -12.0% |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 64.3% | 35.6% |
| logistic | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| markov | abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0) | |
| Daniil Medvedev | Francisco Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2030 | 1947 |
| Surface Elo | 2030 | 1947 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W 路 0 D |
| 04 Oct | H | Francisco Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Jan Lennard Struff | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Rodrigo Alujas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Pablo Carreno Busta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Pablo Carreno Busta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Jakub Mensik | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Jakub Mensik | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct 2026 | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 0 | Francisco Cerundolo |
| 23 Mar 2026 | Daniil Medvedev | 1 - 2 | Francisco Cerundolo |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.40 | 71.4% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| 1xBet | h2h | Francisco Cerundolo | 3.12 | 32.0% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| 888sport | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.36 | 73.5% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| 888sport | h2h | Francisco Cerundolo | 3.10 | 32.3% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Betclic (FR) | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.37 | 73.0% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Betclic (FR) | h2h | Francisco Cerundolo | 3.00 | 33.3% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.42 | 70.4% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h | Francisco Cerundolo | 3.30 | 30.3% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h_lay | Daniil Medvedev | 1.43 | 69.9% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Betfair sharp | h2h_lay | Francisco Cerundolo | 3.35 | 29.8% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| BetOnline.ag | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.38 | 72.5% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| BetOnline.ag | h2h | Francisco Cerundolo | 3.15 | 31.8% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Betsson | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.37 | 73.0% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Betsson | h2h | Francisco Cerundolo | 3.00 | 33.3% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Coolbet | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.38 | 72.5% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Coolbet | h2h | Francisco Cerundolo | 3.07 | 32.6% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| GTbets | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.38 | 72.5% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| GTbets | h2h | Francisco Cerundolo | 3.05 | 32.8% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.36 | 73.5% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | h2h | Francisco Cerundolo | 3.10 | 32.3% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Marathon Bet | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.37 | 73.0% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Marathon Bet | h2h | Francisco Cerundolo | 3.06 | 32.7% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Matchbook | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.42 | 70.4% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Matchbook | h2h | Francisco Cerundolo | 3.30 | 30.3% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Matchbook | h2h_lay | Daniil Medvedev | 1.43 | 69.9% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Matchbook | h2h_lay | Francisco Cerundolo | 3.35 | 29.8% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Nordic Bet | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.37 | 73.0% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Nordic Bet | h2h | Francisco Cerundolo | 3.00 | 33.3% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Pinnacle sharp | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.40 | 71.4% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Pinnacle sharp | h2h | Francisco Cerundolo | 3.23 | 31.0% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| PMU (FR) | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.32 | 75.8% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| PMU (FR) | h2h | Francisco Cerundolo | 2.95 | 33.9% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.10 | 32.3% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.39 | 71.9% | 04 Oct 06:15 |
| Tipico | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.35 | 74.1% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Tipico | h2h | Francisco Cerundolo | 2.95 | 33.9% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Unibet (FR) | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.32 | 75.8% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Unibet (FR) | h2h | Francisco Cerundolo | 2.90 | 34.5% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Unibet (NL) | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.36 | 73.5% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Unibet (NL) | h2h | Francisco Cerundolo | 3.10 | 32.3% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Unibet (SE) | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.36 | 73.5% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Unibet (SE) | h2h | Francisco Cerundolo | 3.10 | 32.3% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| William Hill | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.36 | 73.5% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| William Hill | h2h | Francisco Cerundolo | 3.10 | 32.3% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Winamax (DE) | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.38 | 72.5% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Winamax (DE) | h2h | Francisco Cerundolo | 3.20 | 31.2% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Winamax (FR) | h2h | Daniil Medvedev | 1.37 | 73.0% | 04 Oct 06:01 |
| Winamax (FR) | h2h | Francisco Cerundolo | 3.10 | 32.3% | 04 Oct 06:01 |