| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.6% | 53% | +4.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 47.4% | 37.1% |
| xgboost | 66.9% | 31.9% |
| logistic | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| Washington Capitals | Buffalo Sabres | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1566 | 1535 |
| Surface Elo | 1566 | 1535 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 0.56 | 0.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.33 | 2.80 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.22 | 3.70 |
| Rest days | 4 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Los Angeles Kings | 2 - 5 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | New Jersey Devils | 4 - 2 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | Montréal Canadiens | 5 - 4 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Carolina Hurricanes | 2 - 4 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Seattle Kraken | 3 - 5 | L |
| 21 Oct | H | Philadelphia Flyers | 1 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Montréal Canadiens | 3 - 4 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Toronto Maple Leafs | 5 - 4 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Montréal Canadiens | 3 - 4 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Florida Panthers | 5 - 3 | W |
| 04 Apr 2026 | Washington Capitals | 6 - 2 | Buffalo Sabres |
| 12 Mar 2026 | Buffalo Sabres | 1 - 2 | Washington Capitals |
| 01 Nov 2025 | Buffalo Sabres | 4 - 3 | Washington Capitals |
| 30 Mar 2025 | Washington Capitals | 5 - 8 | Buffalo Sabres |
| 07 Jan 2025 | Buffalo Sabres | 4 - 3 | Washington Capitals |
| 15 Dec 2024 | Washington Capitals | 4 - 2 | Buffalo Sabres |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.87 | 53.5% | 24 Oct 21:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 2.04 | 49.0% | 24 Oct 21:20 |