| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.0% | 47% | -1.1% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 73.8% | 77% | -3.0% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 61.0% | 65% | -4.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.5% | 55% | -0.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.3% | 28.2% | 34.5% |
| xgboost | 49.2% | 29.3% | 21.6% |
| logistic | 41.4% | 29.3% | 29.3% |
| Cesena | Empoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1391 | 1382 |
| Surface Elo | 1391 | 1382 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 2.25 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 3 W · 1 D |
| 24 Oct | A | Modena | 0 - 3 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Modena | 0 - 3 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Avellino | 1 - 1 | D |
| 18 Oct | H | Avellino | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Benevento | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | Vicenza | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | H | L.R. Vicenza | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Ascoli | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Ascoli | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Palermo | 2 - 4 | L |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Empoli | 1 - 1 | Cesena |
| 10 Jan 2026 | Cesena | 0 - 1 | Empoli |
| 17 Apr 2018 | Cesena | 2 - 3 | Empoli |
| 18 Nov 2017 | Empoli | 5 - 3 | Cesena |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.33 | 30.0% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.33 | 30.0% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.76 | 56.8% | 27 Oct 06:15 |