| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.4% | 65% | -9.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 63.0% | 36.9% |
| logistic | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| Marco Trungelliti | Carlo Alberto Caniato | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1710 | 1646 |
| Surface Elo | 1710 | 1646 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.14 | 2.36 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.71 | 1.64 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.57 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Tiago Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Alexander Ritschard | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Tiago Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Diogo Morais | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Marco Trungelliti | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Diogo Morais | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Marvin Moeller | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Daniel Siniakov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 1 - 2 | Marco Trungelliti |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.40 | 41.7% | 21 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.53 | 65.4% | 21 Oct 06:15 |