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Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-04

NFL · Sunday 04 October 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished

Chicago Bears – 23 - 12 – New York Jets

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	78.8%	66%	+13.1%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	78.8%	21.2%

Inputs the models saw

	Chicago Bears	New York Jets
playoff	0.00
elo diff	0.29
form diff	0.38
rest diff	-0.19
home field	1.00
point diff	1.49
opponent strength diff	0.13
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-10-03T17:00:00+00:00

Chicago Bears: last 5

29 Sep	H	Philadelphia Eagles	27 - 7	W
20 Sep	H	Minnesota Vikings	3 - 9	L
13 Sep	A	Carolina Panthers	59 - 37	W
18 Jan	H	Los Angeles Rams	17 - 20	L
11 Jan	H	Green Bay Packers	31 - 27	W

New York Jets: last 5

27 Sep	A	Detroit Lions	24 - 31	L
20 Sep	H	Green Bay Packers	17 - 20	L
13 Sep	A	Tennessee Titans	23 - 10	W
04 Jan	A	Buffalo Bills	8 - 35	L
28 Dec	H	New England Patriots	10 - 42	L

Head to head

27 Nov 2022	New York Jets	31 - 10	Chicago Bears
28 Oct 2018	Chicago Bears	24 - 10	New York Jets
23 Sep 2014	New York Jets	19 - 27	Chicago Bears
26 Dec 2010	Chicago Bears	38 - 34	New York Jets
19 Nov 2006	New York Jets	0 - 10	Chicago Bears
15 Dec 2002	Chicago Bears	20 - 13	New York Jets
26 Nov 2000	New York Jets	17 - 10	Chicago Bears

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	1.55	64.5%	04 Oct 15:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	2.64	37.9%	04 Oct 15:20

Generated 2026-10-30 18:20 UTC