| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 71.8% | 81% | -8.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 80.5% | 19.5% |
| logistic | 65.2% | 34.8% |
| Daniil Medvedev | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2015 | 1810 |
| Surface Elo | 2015 | 1810 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 02 Oct | H | Pablo Carreno Busta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Roman Safiullin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Roman Safiullin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Yi Zhou | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | Jiri Lehecka | 1 - 3 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Andrey Rublev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct 2026 | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 0 | Pablo Carreno Busta |
| 16 Aug 2021 | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 0 | Pablo Carreno Busta |
| 24 Jul 2021 | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 2 | Pablo Carreno Busta |
| 21 Jun 2021 | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 1 | Pablo Carreno Busta |
| 29 Oct 2018 | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 0 | Pablo Carreno Busta |
| 05 Mar 2018 | Daniil Medvedev | 0 - 2 | Pablo Carreno Busta |
| 16 Oct 2017 | Daniil Medvedev | 2 - 0 | Pablo Carreno Busta |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.30 | 23.3% | 01 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.24 | 80.7% | 01 Oct 06:15 |