| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.6% | 49% | -4.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.8% | 77% | -1.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 55.2% | 65% | -9.3% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.5% | 67% | -8.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 36.8% | 24.0% | 39.2% |
| xgboost | 37.3% | 27.7% | 35.1% |
| logistic | 36.8% | 27.7% | 35.5% |
| Hoffenheim | Besiktas | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1609 | 1676 |
| Surface Elo | 1609 | 1676 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 5 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | A | Stuttgart | 2 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Duisburg | 2 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Hamburg | 2 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Hamburg | 2 - 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Paderborn | 1 - 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Kocaelispor | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Kocaelispor | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Amedspor | 2 - 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Amed Sportif Faaliyetler | 2 - 3 | L |
| 11 Sep | H | Erzurumspor | 3 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.53 | 28.3% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.06 | 48.5% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.52 | 65.8% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.60 | 38.5% | 15 Oct 06:15 |