| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 57.5% | 69% | -11.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 39.5% | 60.4% |
| logistic | 39.9% | 60.1% |
| Keegan Smith | Max Purcell | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1593 | 1701 |
| Surface Elo | 1593 | 1701 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.33 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.22 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.56 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | H | Tristan Schoolkate | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Fajing Sun | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Max Purcell | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Martin Landaluce | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Stefanos Sakellaridis | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Evan Zhu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Keegan Smith | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Zhao Zhao | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Ilia Simakin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Cruz Hewitt | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Keegan Smith | 2 - 0 | Max Purcell |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.44 | 69.4% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.65 | 37.7% | 20 Oct 06:15 |