| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 44.6% | 34% | +10.1% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.6% | 77% | -1.5% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 56.0% | 47% | +9.1% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 60% | -5.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 36.1% | 27.1% | 36.8% |
| xgboost | 38.1% | 24.5% | 37.4% |
| logistic | 25.8% | 28.6% | 45.6% |
| Leeds | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1747 | 1784 |
| Surface Elo | 1747 | 1784 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 8 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 4 W · 3 D |
| 13 Oct | A | Oldham | 2 - 4 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Arsenal | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Arsenal | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Stockport | 3 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Tamworth | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | AFC Emley | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Tottenham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 06 Oct | A | Alfreton Town FC | 0 - 1 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Worksop Town | 3 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Fulham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 13 Apr 2026 | Manchester United | 1 - 2 | Leeds |
| 04 Jan 2026 | Leeds | 1 - 1 | Manchester United |
| 12 Feb 2023 | Leeds | 0 - 2 | Manchester United |
| 08 Feb 2023 | Manchester United | 2 - 2 | Leeds |
| 20 Feb 2022 | Leeds | 2 - 4 | Manchester United |
| 14 Aug 2021 | Manchester United | 5 - 1 | Leeds |
| 25 Apr 2021 | Leeds | 0 - 0 | Manchester United |
| 20 Dec 2020 | Manchester United | 6 - 2 | Leeds |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.88 | 34.7% | 18 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 18 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.50 | 40.0% | 18 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.00 | 50.0% | 18 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.85 | 54.0% | 18 Oct 14:00 |