| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.7% | 62% | -8.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 78.1% | 85% | -7.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 69.5% | 78% | -8.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 54% | -0.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 59.2% | 22.7% | 18.0% |
| xgboost | 48.8% | 26.7% | 24.6% |
| logistic | 48.0% | 27.1% | 24.9% |
| Leeds | Stockport | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1754 | 1557 |
| Surface Elo | 1754 | 1557 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 19 | 13 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | A | Tamworth | 0 - 1 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Barnsley | 4 - 3 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Crystal Palace | 0 - 0 | D |
| 14 Sep | H | Newcastle | 4 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Brighton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 06 Oct | A | Shrewsbury | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Peterborough United | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Peterboro | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Sheffield Weds | 0 - 0 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Sheffield Weds | 0 - 0 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.60 | 27.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.30 | 23.3% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.61 | 62.1% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.86 | 53.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.81 | 55.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |