| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.0% | 62% | -9.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 44.9% | 55.0% |
| logistic | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| Mariano Navone | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1810 | 1813 |
| Surface Elo | 1810 | 1813 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Rest days | 12 | 9 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | A | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | H | Mariano Navone | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Nicolas Mejia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Nicolas Mejia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct 2026 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 0 - 2 | Mariano Navone |
| 07 Jul 2025 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 0 - 2 | Mariano Navone |
| 11 Sep 2023 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 0 - 1 | Mariano Navone |
| 26 Sep 2022 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | Mariano Navone |
| 19 Sep 2022 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 0 - 2 | Mariano Navone |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.40 | 41.7% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.60 | 62.5% | 20 Oct 06:15 |