| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 39.3% | 42% | -2.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 71.0% | 73% | -1.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 55.4% | 55% | +0.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% | 56% | +7.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 63.5% | 33% | +30.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.4% | 25.0% | 30.9% |
| xgboost | 37.5% | 29.2% | 33.4% |
| logistic | 37.1% | 32.3% | 30.6% |
| Leeds | Newcastle | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1750 | 1714 |
| Surface Elo | 1750 | 1714 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 9 | 9 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 2 W · 4 D |
| 05 Sep | A | Brighton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | Brentford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | Nottingham Forest | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 May | A | West Ham | 0 - 3 | L |
| 17 May | H | Brighton | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Bournemouth | 2 - 2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | Tottenham | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | Liverpool | 2 - 2 | D |
| 24 May | A | Fulham | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 May | H | West Ham | 3 - 1 | W |
| 07 Jan 2026 | Newcastle | 4 - 3 | Leeds |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Leeds | 0 - 0 | Newcastle |
| 13 May 2023 | Leeds | 2 - 2 | Newcastle |
| 31 Dec 2022 | Newcastle | 0 - 0 | Leeds |
| 22 Jan 2022 | Leeds | 0 - 1 | Newcastle |
| 17 Sep 2021 | Newcastle | 1 - 1 | Leeds |
| 26 Jan 2021 | Newcastle | 1 - 2 | Leeds |
| 16 Dec 2020 | Leeds | 5 - 2 | Newcastle |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.00 | 33.3% | 14 Sep 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 14 Sep 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.30 | 43.5% | 14 Sep 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 14 Sep 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 14 Sep 20:00 |