OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-09-25

NFL · Friday 25 September 2026, 00:15 UTC · finished

Green Bay Packers – 14 - 35 – Atlanta Falcons

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	65.7%	73%	-7.2%	✗ miss

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	65.7%	34.3%

Inputs the models saw

	Green Bay Packers	Atlanta Falcons
playoff	0.00
elo diff	0.15
form diff	-0.25
rest diff	0.00
home field	1.00
point diff	0.01
opponent strength diff	0.11
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-09-24T00:15:00+00:00

Green Bay Packers: last 5

20 Sep	A	New York Jets	20 - 17	W
13 Sep	A	Minnesota Vikings	22 - 39	L
11 Jan	A	Chicago Bears	27 - 31	L
04 Jan	A	Minnesota Vikings	3 - 16	L
28 Dec	H	Baltimore Ravens	24 - 41	L

Atlanta Falcons: last 5

20 Sep	H	Carolina Panthers	3 - 34	L
13 Sep	A	Pittsburgh Steelers	13 - 20	L
04 Jan	H	New Orleans Saints	19 - 17	W
30 Dec	H	Los Angeles Rams	27 - 24	W
21 Dec	A	Arizona Cardinals	26 - 19	W

Head to head

17 Sep 2023	Atlanta Falcons	25 - 24	Green Bay Packers
06 Oct 2020	Green Bay Packers	30 - 16	Atlanta Falcons
09 Dec 2018	Green Bay Packers	34 - 20	Atlanta Falcons
18 Sep 2017	Atlanta Falcons	34 - 23	Green Bay Packers
22 Jan 2017	Atlanta Falcons	44 - 21	Green Bay Packers
30 Oct 2016	Atlanta Falcons	33 - 32	Green Bay Packers
09 Dec 2014	Green Bay Packers	43 - 37	Atlanta Falcons
08 Dec 2013	Green Bay Packers	22 - 21	Atlanta Falcons
10 Oct 2011	Atlanta Falcons	14 - 25	Green Bay Packers
16 Jan 2011	Atlanta Falcons	21 - 48	Green Bay Packers

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	1.42	70.4%	24 Sep 21:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	3.10	32.3%	24 Sep 21:20

Generated 2026-10-30 19:28 UTC